Search results for " contagion"
showing 10 items of 43 documents
Financial contagion through space-time point processes
2020
AbstractWe propose to study the dynamics of financial contagion by means of a class of point process models employed in the modeling of seismic contagion. The proposal extends network models, recently introduced to model financial contagion, in a space-time point process perspective. The extension helps to improve the assessment of credit risk of an institution, taking into account contagion spillover effects.
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
Emotion recognition, emotional awareness and cognitive bias in individuals with bulimia nervosa
2008
Difficulties recognizing emotion have been reported for eating disordered individuals in relation to perception of emotions in others and emotional self-awareness. It remains unclear whether this is a perceptual or cognitive-affective problem. Clarification is sought and the question of a cognitive bias is addressed when interpreting facially expressed emotions. Twenty participants with bulimia nervosa (BN) and 20 normal controls (NC) were assessed for ability to recognize emotional and neutral expressions. Emotional self-awareness was also assessed. Significant differences were found for emotional self-awareness. For emotional faces, only a poorer recognition of the emotion, surprise, for …
Interbrain emotional connection during music performances is driven by physical proximity and individual traits.
2021
How musical emotions and the pleasure derived from music, regardless of the musical valence, can be shared between individuals is a fascinating question, and investigating it can shed light on the function of musical reward. We carried out our investigations in a natural setting during an international competition for orchestra conductors. Participants (n = 15) used a dedicated smartphone app to report their subjective emotional experiences in real time while we recorded their cerebral activity using electroencephalography and their electrodermal activity. The overall behavioral real-time behavioral ratings suggest a possible social influence on the reported and felt pleasure. The physicall…
Contagion and Bank Runs in a Multi-Agent Financial System
2012
In this work we explore contagion from one institution to another that can stem from the existence of a network of financial contracts. In fact, in modern financial systems, an intricate web of claims and obligations links the balance sheets of a wide variety of intermediaries (banks, for instance) into a network structure of interdependencies that have created an environment for feedback elements to generate amplified responses to shocks to the financial system. Small shocks, which initially affect only a few institutions, can indeed spread by contagion to the rest of the financial sector and cause a crisis in the connected intermediaries. Whether the financial crisis does spread depends c…
Choosing Optimal Seed Nodes in Competitive Contagion.
2019
International audience; In recent years there has been a growing interest in simulating competitive markets to find out the efficient ways to advertise a product or spread an ideology. Along this line, we consider a binary competitive contagion process where two infections, A and B, interact with each other and diffuse simultaneously in a network. We investigate which is the best centrality measure to find out the seed nodes a company should adopt in the presence of rivals so that it can maximize its influence. These nodes can be used as the initial spreaders or advertisers by firms when two firms compete with each other. Each node is assigned a price tag to become an initial advertiser whi…
A systematic review of sovereign connectedness on emerging economies.
2019
This article systematically reviews the academic literature on emerging market contagion in order to summarize what we have learnt about the transmission channels existing in these countries. Given the large body of academic research focused on this topic, we especially direct our attention to the strand of the literature that defines and empirically analyses this topic as the significant increase in the cross-market correlations between asset returns during crisis periods or when a shock occurs. The survey covers the findings on financial contagion in the stock, bond, exchange and credit default swap markets during a large period that covers several crises that have characterized the relat…
Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows
2003
Abstract This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending contributed to the transmission of currency crises during the recent episodes of financial instability in emerging markets. The innovation of the paper is that it looks beyond aggregated measures of contagion into the structure of bank flows, disaggregating by banking centers. The main findings are that spillovers caused by banks’ exposures to a crisis country help predict flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crises, but not after the Russian crisis. In the latter, there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets. The importance of spillovers through banking centers suggests that count…
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Volatility co-movements: a time-scale decomposition analysis
2015
In this paper, we are interested in detecting contagion from US to European stock market volatilities in the period immediately after the Lehman Brothers collapse. The analysis is based on a factor decomposition of the covariance matrix, in the time and frequency domain, using wavelets. The analysis aims to disentangle two components of volatility contagion (anticipated and unanticipated by the market). Once we focus on standardized factor loadings, the results show no evidence of contagion (from the US) in market expectations (coming from implied volatility) and evidence of unanticipated contagion (coming from the volatility risk premium) for almost any European country. Finally, the estim…